Can Rudy beat Hillary?

Over at Polipundit a discussion is underway on whether Rudy could beat Hillary. I maintain that she can because Rudy is a social liberal, something that the conservative base of the Republican party would stay home in droves rather than vote for. Some think that this is not true but I’m not sure I see any historical validation of this view. Quite the opposite:

- Carter won because Ford could not motivate the base.
- Clinton won because Bush stepped over onto the left side on taxes (actually he was rolled but he still veered left),
- Clinton won again because Dole agreed with the Democrats a few too many times while Senate ML (albeit for political expediency rather than because he agreed with them),
- GW almost lost twice because he demonstrated he is outright center/left when it comes to spending, education, prescription drugs and border policy.

Just imagine if Bush had been pro-choice. Would he have won? I guarantee you he would have lost a significant share of the conservative vote and we would be in a second term of Al Gore right now had he not taken a stand for life.

Hillary is a much more formidable candidate than either Gore or Kerry if for no other reason than she is a liberal woman by the name of Clinton. She is also a demonstrably principled liberal and has been all her life. Likewise, Rudy is much more of a principled individual than Dole or GHWB. Both probably will stick to their ideological guns.

So when he comes out with a lib position on an issue, I’m inclined to think that he is neither going to change his mind nor would he be a wallflower about those issues. Either he is principled (the reason some are giving for liking him) and therefore he will stand up for the things he has espoused he believes in. Or he will flip flop on those liberal issues to get elected, thereby disqualifying himself from getting support for being “principled". Either way, he’s non-electible.